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This doctoral thesis is concerned with two separate but intertwined topics in the field of financial econometrics: (i) the measurement and relevance of new sources of information on financial markets in the form of online investor sentiment and attention and (ii) nonlinearities in financial time series in the form of structural breaks. According to classical finance theory, competition among rational investors, often called arbitrageurs, leads to an equilibrium in which prices on capital markets equal the present value of expected future cash flows. Under this theoretical lens, the trading decisions of irrational investors have no significant impact on prices since their demands are offset by rational investors. However, the classical finance theory fails to fit the extreme levels of and changes in stock prices corresponding to events such as the Great Crash of 1929 or the Dot.com bubble of the 1990s, which are difficult to align with any rational explanation. Akin to the notion of "animal spirit" first coined by Keynes (1936), behavioral finance theory sets out to augment the classical model by explicitly taking into account two assumptions: Firstly, trading activities of investors are thought of to be partially influenced by subjective beliefs about investment risks and future cash flows, generally referred to as investor sentiment. Secondly, there are limits to arbitrage in the sense that betting against sentiment-driven investors is associated with higher risks and costs. Thus, inconsistent with predictions of the classical finance theory, arbitrageurs do not aggressively force prices to fundamentals. On this basis, irrational (collective) investor behavior has moved into the focus of modern finance theory and corresponding empirical applications. The widespread internet access and usage of social media platforms in recent years have led to new sources of information - and with them new sources and types of data that can be used by researchers and practitioners alike - pertaining to this collective investor behavior and corresponding financial market outcome: Short messages published on social media platforms such as Twitter or StockTwits on the one hand and online search queries on the other. The first part of this thesis makes use of such data in empirical financial applications, also from a high-frequency intraday perspective, in order to assess its impact on predictions of financial variables and to unravel new relationships. In general, it is reasonable to assume that many relationships in economics and finance are nonlinear. Thus, several kinds of nonlinearities can arise when considering financial markets and time series of financial variables that are not necessarily approximated well by simple linear models. Relating to the behavioral finance literature, the model of De Long et al. (1990) proposes that in the presence of sentiment-prone noise traders the price of a risky asset evolves as a nonlinear function of these noise traders' average bullishness (i.e., their mean misperception of the expected price) and its variance. Though being of a different philosophical nature than sentiment-induced noise trader theories, some other models of trade based on noninformational reasons, such as changes in risk aversion or liquidity needs, also involve nonlinear relations. The second part of the thesis focuses on one often overlooked kind of nonlinearity that entails potentially more severe implications, namely structural breaks in financial time series. Structural breaks, also referred to as change-points, in the data generating process underlying a given univariate time series do not only constitute a source of nonlinearity that can be modeled but also a more subtle source of nonstationarity. Given that endeavors of time series model building and prediction usually demand some stationarity assumption to be made, the latter poses a common problem in the analysis of univariate economic and financial time series. Matters are complicated by the fact that the exact number and timing of structural breaks are usually unknown ex-ante. Therefore, the consistent estimation of structural breaks, or change-points, has been studied extensively in the related literature. This thesis adds to the ongoing discussion by proposing a two-step model selection procedure for the detection and timing of change-points in structural break autoregressive models. A similar methodology is then used to investigate the effect of Box-Cox transforms on the estimation of structural breaks in realized volatility time series.

While there is a great sense of urgency in the scientific community to act now in order to slow the imminent negative effects of global warming, most organizations continue to run their operations as though the external context has not changed significantly. For the banking sector, in particular not much research has been conducted in the area of their strategic engagement with climate change (CC), despite the fact that the engagement of this sector is crucial for the transition to a low-carbon economy. This is why this thesis focuses on the banking sector. Through an exploratory comparative case study of four banks, this thesis investigates mechanisms that have led to, or have been prevented from, the integration of climate change in the respective bank’s corporate strategies. In particular, it answers the following questions: How are banks interpreting climate change in their organizational context? To what degree does the initial individual interpretation influence the attentional distribution through structures and communication of the issue internally? Can this explain the variance in observed strategic choices? In order to answer those questions, a multi-level analysis was conducted using three different theoretical perspectives: the macro, meso and micro. 1. The macro lens, grounded in institutional theory, is important in order to generate understanding about the perception of current institutional pressures possibly influencing corporate responses. 2. The meso lens, grounded in the Attention Based View of the Firm, serves to analyze how attention structures inside the banks influence the distribution of attention towards the topic and influence the degree of integrating climate change-related aspects across the organization. 3. The micro lens, based on the concept of moral intensity (Jones, 1991), serves as an alternative interpretation model to explore how managers make sense of climate change as individuals. Further, the concept of “issue selling” investigates what language managers use to generate attention regarding climate change while using different attentional structures explored through the meso lens. The findings are based on four case studies of banks located in Europe, each of which show a different degree of climate change integration in their corporate strategy. The case studies drew upon field research including 23 semi-structured interviews with senior managers and members of the executive teams from those four banks, six interviews with stakeholders and a comprehensive analysis of publicly available corporate documents, company-related media releases, videos and further interviews, but also confidential corporate material that was made available to me. Through analysis of the data, the following findings can be made: Most banks perceive climate change in terms of pressure: coercive pressure from clients, very limited pressure from regulators in the area of risk and as mimetic pressure to respond. Some banks, however, also perceive climate change to be a moral issue that demands their contribution to act. In those banks, climate change is regarded as a morally intense issue — this term being defined as a commonly accepted phenomenon with extreme consequences for the future of the society they are embedded in and that they serve. One bank mainly had a scientific view on climate change as a human-induced natural phenomenon. Depending on these first interpretations, the findings suggest that different languages are deployed to further distribute the issue across the organization. In the case of scientific and institutional interpretations, the main language used to sell the issue inside the organization and to justify its incorporation as part of strategy was economic. climate change was translated into financial risk, business opportunity or a potential for cost reduction. Banks that mainly interpreted climate change as a moral imperative to act, communicated this issue differently. They proffered moral arguments that were grounded in the organization’s mission to serve society and based their strategic engagement on this mission. Economic arguments were only deployed at the stage of operationalization of climate change. These different languages influenced the arenas where conversations linked to climate change took place and how widely attention was subsequently distributed across the organization. In the case of a scientific language, climate change was not incorporated into strategy and remained as a topic of general interest, managed by the corporate social responsibility (CSR) function. In the case of an economic language, climate change was strictly contained to a few of already existing governance channels and sometimes even ignored entirely. No further attention to the issue within the companies could be observed. Strategic engagement and change were strictly related to fields where economic impact could be generated at the lowest transaction cost possible. In the instances where moral language was used within governance channels, conversation yielded a different level of engagement. In these cases, governance structures provided a platform for generating a common and more holistic understanding of the phenomenon and its impacts. The attentional engagement with the complexity of the issue grew across the organization and led to creation of new governance communication channels to help address emerging issues. As a result, the strategic integration of climate change was more holistic and comprehensive. The thesis makes theoretical contributions to institutional theory, Attention Based View of the Firm, the issue selling literature and Governance Ethics. Its results also have important implications for practice.

Confidence judgments and decision making are part of everyday life. In an ideal world, people would assess their skills and knowledge accurately and base their decisions only on rational deliberations. Yet, this is often not the case. Confidence judgments in own skills or performance are often biased (e.g., Dunning, 2011; Moore & Healy, 2008; Moore & Schatz, 2017; Sanchez & Dunning, 2018; Pikulina, Renneboog, & Tobler, 2017; Michailova & Schmidt, 2016). Also, people tend to deviate from rational decision strategies (e.g., Achtziger & Alós-Ferrer, 2014; Alós-Ferrer, Hügelschäfer, & Li, 2016, 2017; Charness, Karni, & Levin, 2010; Erev, Shimonovich, Schurr, & Hertwig, 2008; Fiedler, Brinkmann, Betsch, & Wild, 2000; Tschan et al., 2009). Therefore, the research aim of the present dissertation was twofold. In the first chapter of the present dissertation I investigated confidence judgments in own skills and the confidence bias, the processes underlying these confidence judgments, and the influences of gender and monetary incentive on confidence judgments. The second aim was to investigate the influence of goal and implementation intentions on rational decision making and how this influence is reflected in the neural correlate of reinforcement learning. A common finding in research on confidence judgments is the confidence bias (e.g. Moore & Schatz, 2017; Moore & Healy, 2008; Pikulina et al., 2017; Sanchez & Dunning, 2018; Lebreton et al., 2018). In most cases, the confidence bias reflects overconfidence, which means that people’s subjective confidence exceeds their actual ability or performance (Fischhoff, Slovic, & Lichtenstein, 1977). In some cases, there is also evidence for underconfidence, suggesting that people underestimate their abilities (Kruger & Dunning, 1999; Kruger & Burrus, 2004). Gender is an important predictor of the confidence bias. Underconfidence is more prevalent in females, whereas males often display overconfidence (e.g., Barber & Odean, 2001; Hügelschäfer & Achtziger, 2014; Niederle & Vesterlund, 2007). In Study 1, I investigated the processes underlying confidence judgments and the confidence bias by means of response times, and I examined potential gender differences. Participants answered general knowledge questions and judged their confidence on the correctness of each answer. Participants had overall a good sense of whether their answer was correct or incorrect. This was reflected by higher confidence judgments on correct answers compared to incorrect ones. The analysis of response times on the confidence judgments revealed that male participants who took longer to judge their confidence were made more accurate judgments than males who responded quickly. This relationship was not found for females. In Study 2, half of the participants received a monetary incentive for good performance in the general knowledge test. The monetary incentive for performance increased the time invested in both tasks (the knowledge questions and the confidence judgments). However, this increased effort did not lead to better performance on the knowledge questions, nor did it yield more accurate confidence judgments. The response times suggested that males who invested more time in the confidence judgments were more accurate (as in Study 1). However, the opposite was true for females. The more time females invested in their judgment the more underconfident they were. This influence of the response time on the confidence bias was only found for incentivized participants. In Study 3, the accuracy of the confidence judgment was incentivized. Contrary to the expectations, the monetary incentive did not reduce the confidence bias but led both males and females to be overconfident. In this study, the response time on the confidence judgment did not predict the confidence bias. On the whole, the results demonstrate that (a) the processes of confidence judgments differ between females and males, and (b) the effectiveness of monetary incentives for improving the accuracy of confidence judgments depends strongly on the incentive being contingent on the performance in the task at hand. The second chapter of the present dissertation investigated the influence of goal and implementation intentions (P. M. Gollwitzer, 1999) on rational decision making (see also Hügelschäfer & Achtziger, 2017). The impact of intentions was examined by the neural correlate of reinforcement learning, i.e. the feedback-related negativity (FRN; Holroyd & Coles, 2002). Participants worked on a probability updating task in which the optimal strategy to maximize the expected payoff was to follow Bayes’ rule by integrating new information with prior probabilities (Bayes & Price, 1763). The optimal decision rule conflicted with a simpler suboptimal decision strategy, i.e. the reinforcement heuristic (see Achtziger & Alós-Ferrer, 2014; Charness & Levin, 2005). The goal and implementation intention manipulation was proposed to control the automatic process of the reinforcement heuristic and hence foster rational decision making. The results showed that the goal intention and the implementation intention had no influence on the number of reinforcement errors (in contrast to the findings of Hügelschäfer & Achtziger, 2017). However, both, the goal and implementation intentions increased the amplitude of the FRN which, on the neural level, indicated a stronger reliance on the reinforcement heuristic than in the control group. The findings shed some light on the impact of goal and implementation intentions on rational decision making. They demonstrate that careful consideration of the use of intentions as an intervention for improved decision making is required to avoid undesired side-effects. Taken together, the present dissertation provided new insights into the processes underlying confidence judgments, the confidence bias, rational decision making, and its neural correlates.

Seit Beginn des 21. Jahrhunderts befindet sich der deutsche Bankenmarkt in einem anhaltenden Veränderungsprozess. Der damit einhergehende Strukturwandel auf Basis sich verändernder Rahmenbedingungen sowie die Auswirkungen der Finanzkrise haben zu einer beschleunigten Abnahme von Kundenloyalität geführt, die das Privatkundengeschäft von Banken vor enorme Herausforderungen stellt. Darüber hinaus weist die Bestandsaufnahme der bisherigen Forschung zu diesem Themengebiet erhebliche Defizite auf, woraus sich sowohl für die Wissenschaft als auch für die Unternehmenspraxis ein hoher Forschungsbedarf ableiten lässt. Vor diesem Hintergrund wurde das übergeordnete Ziel dieser Arbeit definiert, einen Beitrag zu leisten, um die Einflussfaktoren für den Erhalt und Aufbau von Bankloyalität besser zu verstehen und dabei insbesondere die Rolle der Reputation von Banken als Loyalitätsdeterminante zu untersuchen. Im Ergebnis werden auf Basis der Unterschiede zwischen den drei Bankensäulen im deutschen Privatkundengeschäft nach Bankengruppen differenzierte Handlungsempfehlungen für die Unternehmenspraxis abgeleitet.

Die vorliegende Arbeit setzt sich mit einer besonderen Form der Implementierung eines Systems des Wissensmanagements im Unternehmen auseinander. Über den Verlauf von mehr als zwei Jahren wurde die Einführung eines Wissensmanagements in einem spezifischen Unternehmen beobachtet. Eine Besonderheit lag im vom beobachteten Unternehmen gewählten Ansatz, der sich im Wesentlichen aus dem Gedankengut des Systemischen Wissensmanagements, der Ansätze der Knowledge Networks und der Wissenskooperation sowie Axiomen der systemischen Organisationsberatung speiste. Das Unternehmen hatte sich gegen eine top-down gesteuerte Einführung entschieden. Sein Vorgehen basierte vielmehr auf der Perturbation des Systems der Organisation zur Stimulierung des Entstehens von Wissenskooperation und Wissensnetzwerken. So sollten schlussendlich die Vorteile eines optimierten Umgangs mit Wissen sichtbar und spürbar werden. Dieser wahrnehmbare Nutzen sollte dann in die Begründung von Projekten und Aktivitäten zur tatsächlichen Verbesserung des Umgangs mit Wissen münden. Mit dem Ziel, Einblick in die inneren Mechanismen des Systems der Organisation zu bekommen, beobachtete der Forscher, welche Form eines Wissensmanagements sich so bilden würde, und ob sich darüber hinaus auf diese Weise ein steuerbares Konstrukt eines Wissensmanagements etablieren lassen würde. Diese Untersuchung gibt Aufschluss darüber, wie eine Organisation mit etablierten Strukturen und eingeübten Prozessen auf Interventionen reagiert, die darauf abzielen, sie zu einer Veränderung in ihrem Umgang mit Wissen zu bewegen. Ferner wird der so beschrittene Weg der Implementierung eines Systems des Wissensmanagements evaluiert.